In an economic forecast released this week, the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that the nationwide unemployment rate will actually rise slightly to 10.3 percent in the first quarter, before easing back down to 10 percent in the third and fourth quarters of 2010.
The unemployment situation may be especially important to Americans who are struggling with the prospect of mortgage foreclosure or delinquency on their credit card accounts. However, other economic projections from the MBA suggest that a recovery will be underway in 2010, although not at the rate that some may have hoped for.
For example, the organization foresees moderate but steady gains in the gross domestic product throughout 2010, with 2.7 percent growth expected in the first and third quarters of the year before a more substantial 3.2 percent growth rate is seen in the final quarter.
Personal consumption expenditures are set to grow at a slightly faster rate, starting with 2.2 percent in the first quarter. However, this statistic may depend heavily on how well consumers have learned their lessons about debt management and excessive spending in the current economic climate. The nation’s combined credit card debt has fallen substantially in the past year or two, but a key test will be whether that trend continues once financial institutions have loosened up their lending practices somewhat.
Finally, the MBA also projects relatively healthy gains in residential investment, which will be a good sign for the millions of Americans currently underwater on their mortgages. The group sees double-digit gains for much of the year in this sector, starting with 17.7 percent in the second quarter after an 8.6 percent gain in the current quarter.
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